Election-related freebies and populist measures are other factors crimping the revenue profile of these states.
Eighteen of India's 28 states exceeded the fiscal deficit ceiling of 3 per cent of GSDP in FY25, a deterioration comparable to the Covid year of 2020-21, according to the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG). The report also noted a decline in states reporting a revenue surplus, with Bihar, Mizoram, and Telangana moving into deficit.
India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) has projected the aggregate fiscal deficit of states to rise to 3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026-27 (FY27), from an estimated 2.8 per cent in 2025-26 (FY26), citing higher revenue expenditure amid election-related pressures and scheme cost-sharing requirements.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announces increased domestic LPG production to offset import disruptions caused by Middle East tensions, alongside assurances of fertiliser availability and the clearing of UPA-era oil bonds.
Assam emerged as the fastest-growing large state with a remarkable 17.3 per cent nominal GDP CAGR over five years.
Trinamool Congress leader Derek O'Brien has challenged Prime Minister Narendra Modi's claims about India's progress, citing poverty statistics and West Bengal's economic growth.
A new white paper released by the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) government reveals that Tamil Nadu's direct debt has nearly doubled to an alarming 10 trillion in the past five years, exposing significant fiscal strain and a substantial debt burden on every citizen.
The report notes that equities had faced pressure from elevated valuation premiums, subdued nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and earnings growth, sustained foreign portfolio investor (FPI) selling, artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure euphoria, and external shocks including US tariffs and a spike in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia. However, several of these factors are now reversing.
Tamil Nadu Governor RV Arlekar announced that the TVK regime, led by Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay, will take steps to ensure fair financial devolution from the Centre, including pursuing the matter in the Supreme Court. The government also plans to conduct a 'Social Justice Survey' and address the state's severe financial deterioration.
State debt is rising because revenues are disappointingly weak. Ten states have debt ratios exceeding 30 per cent. In 2023-2024, states were borrowing simply to meet day-to-day expenses, points out Debashis Basu.
India's gross GST collections increased by 3.2 per cent to over Rs 1.94 lakh crore in May, driven by improved supplies of goods and services and a continued expansion in collections from imports.
Under the TMC, Bengal has seen expansion of welfare, but not big-ticket private investment.
Why would a country that requires close to $90 billion in net foreign capital annually to create jobs, build productive capacity, and sustain rapid growth permit $30 billion of capital to flow abroad, thereby contributing to pressure on the rupee? asks Debashis Basu.
The Union Housing and Urban Affairs Minister's announcement of four 'Namo Cities' aims to decentralise development and decongest Delhi, but experts warn that the initiative may face execution challenges similar to previous urbanisation plans due to inadequate coordination among NCR states.
The Indian government is set to accelerate reforms, including measures to enhance foreign direct investment, speed up divestment, and boost asset monetisation, to maintain economic growth despite rising fuel and fertiliser import costs driven by the West Asia crisis.
Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have been fiscally stressed for a considerable period of time, and there are no easy ways to mobilise revenues to meet the cost of the promised freebies, particularly in the prevailing difficult economic scenario, points out M Govinda Rao.
India's state-level fiscal rules have improved headline deficits, but the gains are fragile and uneven with major states still grappling with high debt levels, a World Bank report submitted to the 16th Finance Commission (FC) said. According to the report, despite nearly two decades of adoption of fiscal responsibility laws (FRLs), debt levels have not converged.
'Today, we see people go on ChatGPT to ask 'can you plan my holiday' and then they have to go outside of the ChatGPT window to make all the bookings and so how can we complete that really high-intent use case that a user has come to ChatGPT with and help them complete that all the way within the chat GPT window.'
India Ratings and Research predicts the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the repo rate at 5.25 per cent throughout FY27, despite potential inflationary pressures from higher fuel prices, with inflation expected to remain within the central bank's tolerance band.
'OMCs are incurring losses of Rs 1,000 crore per day due to the West Asia crisis.'
It seems odd to criticise a country for delivering growth rates in standards of living and consumption that have been perhaps the fastest, longest, and most broad-based (affecting hundreds of millions of people) in history, points out Arvind Subramanian.
S Mahendra Dev, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, expressed confidence that the rupee would stabilise around the 92-93 level against the US dollar, despite geopolitical tensions, and that foreign investment flows would return.
On Agri Stack, Expenditure Secy V Vualnam says it's progressing well; using IT, farmers will be able to choose exact fertiliser quantities needed, reducing crowding at fertiliser outlets.
Following through announcements with enforcement of measures is key, as a run through recent Indian economic history shows, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Despite a 21 per cent minimum wage hike in parts of Uttar Pradesh, factory workers in India, particularly in states like Uttar Pradesh and Haryana, continue to experience wages below the national average and a widening disparity compared to supervisors and managers.
Moody's Ratings has downgraded India's growth forecast for financial year 2026-27 (FY27) to 6 per cent from 6.8 per cent, attributing the revision to weaker consumption and industrial activity, elevated energy prices, and rising input costs stemming from the West Asia conflict.
'Our government is committed to addressing it firmly while protecting the rights of genuine citizens.'
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
A State Bank of India report indicates a sharp increase in precautionary cash holding in India, with the gap between per capita currency in circulation and ATM withdrawals widening significantly, driven by global uncertainties despite record digital payment transactions.
Global brokerage Bernstein has issued a cautionary note, stating that India risks 'under-delivering on its potential' unless it addresses key policy bottlenecks and structural risks, including employment challenges from AI, limited manufacturing gains, and rising welfare spending.
India's first trillion-dollar company will be built on technology it owns, not just operates, predicts Ajay Kumar.
Internet subscribers, income growth, literacy and dependency ratio are the biggest drivers of growth.
India's digital economy is projected to constitute nearly 20 per cent of the nation's GDP by 2030, fuelled by a growth rate twice as fast as the overall economy, according to a senior government official.
India's defence expenditure surged to $92.1 billion in 2025, making it the world's fifth-largest military spender, according to SIPRI data. This 8.9 per cent year-on-year rise was primarily driven by operational and procurement needs following heightened regional tensions with Pakistan in May 2025.
India's new national accounts will leverage new data sources and surveys to enhance the measurement of the country's informal economy, and introduce double deflation methods across sectors, replacing the current system that relies on a single deflation mechanism in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculations.
India's economy is projected to maintain growth above 7 per cent in 2026-27 (FY27), supported by strong domestic consumption and investment, even as global growth faces risks from geopolitical tensions, according to industry body Assocham.
India's 18 largest states, accounting for over 90 per cent of the country's gross state domestic product (GSDP), are likely to record a marginal uptick in revenue growth to 7-9 per cent this year, from 6.6 per cent clocked in 2024-25 (FY25), rating agency Crisil said in a report on Tuesday. This growth, slower than the decadal average of about 10 per cent, would lift these states' cumulative revenue to around Rs 40 trillion in FY26 from Rs 37.26 trillion in FY25.
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
India's GST revenues experienced significant growth in March, reaching pre-tax cut levels, driven by increased imports and domestic sales. The report analyses the impact of tax rate changes and provides insights into future trends and economic stability.
India's gross GST collection increased by 8.1 per cent to over Rs 1.83 lakh crore in February, driven by higher import revenues and improved domestic sales. Despite some states reporting negative or below-average growth, experts see the overall trend as a sign of a maturing tax ecosystem and a confident domestic market.
